About Peter Zeihan - Geopolitical Strategist; Global Energy, Demographic, and Security Expert:
The worldview of Peter Zeihan marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
In his career, Zeihan has ranged from working for the US State Department in Australia, to the DC think tank community, to helping develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Mr. Zeihan founded his own firm -- Zeihan on Geopolitics -- in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.
His freshman book, The Accidental Superpower, debuted in 2014. His sophomore project, Shale New World, will be released later this year.
What Peter Zeihan Talks About:
Peter Zeihan often presents on a wide variety of economic, political, strategic and cultural topics spanning the international system. He tailors his executive briefings to address the needs of specific clients on specific timeframes. The following list includes selections of custom keynotes during the past two years.
The Trump Doctrine
Presidents come and go, but geography doesn't change. Gain understanding of the world the incoming Trump administration is inheriting, and get a glimpse into how the new White House will grapple with crises imminent, opportunities golden and everything in between.
The End of Europe
Five recessions in nine years. A litany of debt debacles. Ossified institutions incapable of change. Rising populism. Refugee floods. Russians growling at the border. And that's the good news. Despite a decade of crisis none of Europe's problems have had their root causes addressed, and now time is simply up. Everything that makes modern, wealthy, cosmopolitan, democratic Europe possible is breaking apart, and the Europeans are about to lose far more than "merely" a decade. Discover what makes Europe tick, what is tearing it down, and most of all, what is next.
A World Without China
Three pillars support modern China's success: global trade, internal political unity, and easy money. With those three pillars, China has managed to shake 2000 years of war and occupation and remake itself as one of the world's most powerful countries. Yet none of these three pillars can stand without American assistance, and that cooperation is ending. China's "inevitable" rise isn't simply over, it is about to go into screeching, unrelenting, dismembering reverse. But that's hardly the end of history. When a country falls -- particularly the world's top manufacturing power -- the ripples affect countries and industries near and far. Learn who benefits and who loses in a world without China.
Americans believe that their greatest days are behind them and that a series of new powers is rising up to displace them. On the contrary, America’s best days — militarily, economically, financially and culturally — are still ahead of them. In fact, many of the states that the Americans feel are up-and-comers — most notably China, Russia and India — are merely experiencing a historical moment in the sun courtesy of factors utterly beyond their control. Most of the powers of tomorrow are countries that the Americans either have very little knowledge of. The major powers of 2030 will not based in Beijing or Moscow, but in Jakarta, Buenos Aires, Warsaw, Istanbul and Mexico City.
Supersize Me: The Future of Global Energy
The global energy sector is as complicated and opaque as it is omnipresent and essential, and it has adapted to not simply the changes in the global economic system, but the global political system. Countries that were weak to nonexistent in ages past now are major players in global energy markets, both as producers and consumers. The system that has allowed this evolution now is under fire, and soon the stability that has enabled the energy sector to create its global webwork will end. What will follow will be a world both more chaotic and poorer, one in which the process of finding, producing, transporting and refining energy will simply be beyond the military and financial capacity of most players. Only the largest, smartest and richest entities will be able to maintain – much less expand – their networks. Far from its final days, the era of the supermajor has not yet begun.
What Every Financial Professional Should Know About Geopolitics
Geopolitics is the study of how place impacts people — whether that impact be cultural, military, economic, political…or financial. Everything from how banks lend to how stocks are traded is heavily colored by where one lives, and understanding the unspoken — and often unacknowledged — rules of the game can prove critical to financial success. Zeihan explains how geography impacts the various regions differently, how this elevates some sectors while enervating others, and what sort of surprises — both good and bad — are about to burst onto the stage.
Amber Waves of (American) Grain: The Future of Global Agriculture
Modern agricultural patterns are the result of three largely unrelated factors: low-risk global trade, insatiable Asian demand, and unlimited cheap credit. Within the next five years, all three of these trends will not just evaporate, but invert. When that happens, the only thing that will hurt more than the gradual loss of demand will be the sudden collapse of supply. However, none of this impacts the American producer – it therefore will be the United States that will reap the benefits of its productivity and stability for decades to come.
No Assembly Required: The Future of Global Manufacturing
The world of manufacturing is an endlessly specialized venture, with most manufacturers sourcing components from scores of facilities across a dozen or more countries. But what if the ability to sail components from site to site became compromised? What if capital availability proves insufficient to update industrial bases as technology evolves? What if intermediate and end markets become less desirable – or less accessible? All that and more is about to happen, which signals the end of manufacturing as we know it. The successful manufacturers of the future will be those who can command access to raw materials, capital, labor and markets – all in the same location.
Life After Free Trade
Bretton Woods is the cornerstone of the modern system. The concept of countries being able to buy and sell their wares openly on the international marketplace is inviolable. The freedom to sail one’s products around the world is a given. Everything from the transfer of money to the accessibility of energy is sacrosanct. All this and more is artificial. All this and more is about to end. What replaces it will either be wondrous or damning. Your outcome depends upon where you live.
The China Wars
The growth of the Chinese economy has been exceptional. But as much as we all “know” that China is the country of the future, in reality the Chinese system is already breaking apart. Chinese “success” is based upon a financial structure that is cracking, a demographic moment that has nearly ended, and an international environment over which it has no influence. What follows will not end Chinese participation in the global system, but it will certainly end Beijing’s.
The New Middle East
For decades the Middle East has been trapped in a simple, irresistible tension: the world needs the region’s oil, so the global superpower keeps the region locked in place. Within a very few short years that lock will be removed, and the region’s politics will unravel explosively. What comes next will challenge every country in the region — many to the breaking point.
The emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China offered the possibility of remaking the global system. Well, it was fun while it lasted. Each BRIC country now faces their own custom-made nightmare, with only one of them likely even having a future as a country.
Seven(teen) Years of Lean: The Future of Global Finance
In the decades since World War II, everything from computerization to securitization to the rise of the developing world has made the financial sector central to modern economic activity. But never forget that modern finance itself is an outgrowth of revenues generated by the global free trade order. Never forget that the past two decades have witnessed the richest and cheapest supplies of capital in history. A political decision made seven decades ago created the trade order. A fleeting demographic moment created the capital richness. Both have nearly run their course. Very soon we will bid finance as we know it goodbye, and the world will be much poorer for it. A few locations, however, will find the wreckage easier to struggle through than others. For those lucky few, the world will be their oyster.
Peter’s knowledge on geopolitics combined with his ease and entertaining delivery make his presentations exceptional. He consistently gets the top rated score amongst our speakers, bringing great food for thought. He is worth every penny.
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