Geopolitical Snapshot – The US & Iran
Dr. George Friedman discusses the United States’ Relationship with Iran
Dr. George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster, international affairs strategist and best-selling author. As Founder and Chairman of Geopolitical Futures, an online publication dedicated to forecasting the course of global events, Friedman combines his passion for writing and publishing for his readers world wide who follow international affairs.
Here is a summary of Dr. Friedman‘s take on the US’ role in the Middle East, with a specific focus on Iran:
According to Dr. Friedman‘s analysis the United States military strategy continues to evolve, prioritizing avoiding significant casualties while still exerting influence in conflicts. This strategy has been evident in recent events, such as the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. In Ukraine, the US has supported Ukrainian forces with weapons and political signals to shape Russian actions without committing troops. Similarly, in the Middle East, the US and UK intercepted Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, signaling a deterrent to Iranian expansionist behavior without deploying ground troops.
Dr. Friedman suggests that this approach, focused on minimizing casualties while projecting power, is becoming increasingly central to American strategy in both regional conflicts and broader geopolitical challenges.
Conclusions:
The United States has adopted a strategy of using force without risking significant casualties of its own in conflicts, as evidenced by its involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East.
- This strategy contrasts with previous approaches, such as the heavy casualties incurred during the Vietnam War, and reflects a shift towards minimizing troop deployments while still exerting influence.
- In both the Ukraine and Middle East situations, the US has demonstrated its willingness to support allies and deter adversaries through the provision of weapons, political signals, and military interventions without ground troops.
- The primary motivation behind these actions is not necessarily to directly support allies like Ukraine or Israel, but rather to contain adversaries such as Russia and Iran, respectively.
- Dr. Friedman suggests that this strategy of minimizing casualties while projecting power is becoming the new normal for managing both minor issues and broader, longer-term geopolitical challenges.